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Emissionsscenarier

Prognoser for ændringer i det fremtidige klima som følge af emissioner fra menneskelige aktiviteter begynder med udviklingen af emissionsscenarier. Disse scenarier er ikke forudsigelser, men repræsenterer sandsynlige fremtidige forhold under særlige antagelser.

Emissioner scenarier er skøn over fremtidige udledning af drivhusgasser frigivet i atmosfæren. Sådanne estimater er baseret på mulige fremskrivninger af økonomisk og befolkningsvækst og teknologisk udvikling samt fysiske processer inden for klimasystemet.

Sådanne scenarier er uundværlige for at sammenligne resultaterne af de forskellige klimamodeller mellem dem ved at se på hvilke forskellige resultater (afhængigt af modellerne) med samme hypotese.

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